Four years after the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), Mexico and the U.S. face the prospect of cheap Chinese electric vehicles dominating a fast-growing market and undermining GM, Ford, and Tesla.
Vehicles aren’t just one technology though, they are commodity items. Cellphones are more expensive than a decade ago, so are laptops. The average ICE car has gotten much more expensive over time. So, do you think EV technologies will get significantly cheaper quicker than inflation and the general direction of the industry?
The example of the mobile phone is pretty wrong. The first mobile cost about $4000 and the cheapest today still costs around $25. The original cars cost 30k adjusted for inflation with the cheapest today costing around 15.
Once again. It’s always held true. Outside factors could make it take longer but ultimately you said never. Which basically makes your original statement near impossible.
If you’re not adjusting for inflation you’re just betting that EV range won’t come down in price faster than inflation. Seems like a bit of a technicality, but I still wouldn’t bet on it myself. I have a feeling 350 miles of range is going to be pretty common in a few years.
I actually do think EV range will come down in price faster than inflation, and probably at a pretty significant rate too. I just think the the $15K, 350mi EV is unlikely to ever exist because:
The other basic components of a car have a cost, and that’s increasing because of inflation, but also increased safety standards and the additional “standard” options the industry pushes. I think the price of a car before the drive-train is getting pretty close to that $15K.
Bigger battery packs have less range efficiency because they have to haul around the rest of the battery. People keep pointing out the BYD Dolphin is sold in China for the equivalent of <$15K, but the base range is 187mi, meaning a 350mi range would need significantly more than double the batteries.
I expect (or at least hope) that range will become less of an issue as charging gets better and more ubiquitous, and owners get used to charging at home. I know some people actually do need 350mi+ range, but I think that’s pretty rare so high range cars won’t have the economies of scale that cheap, mainstream goods get.
That makes sense. Though it’s not unheard of for breakthroughs in battery chemistry to lead to increased energy density, which would increase range without increasing weight.
The Chinese government is subsidising the car industry to outcompete and destroy other manufacturers. These cars are being sold for less than they’re worth. This is why the EU is banning them. Its the same thing when you in wish and order something for 3 dollars. The Chinese government subsisdises the postage in China and international law means your post has to deliver it in your country.
You good? All of your pressing concerns addressed? Everything to your meme satisfaction? Need some more documentation? Can we let the service workers go home now?
The base range is 187mi. You’re going to need to spend more if you want the 252mi range.
That’s the price in China. It costs thousands of dollars to move a vehicle halfway across the world. There’s a reason the price is Australia and Europe is significantly higher!
I don’t doubt that batteries will continue to get better and better, and cheaper and cheaper. However, there are almost no new vehicles PERIOD that are sold in the US for $15K. Maybe we’ll see EVs for $15K, but they certainly won’t have a 350mi range. By the time cheap EVs have that range, cheap cars won’t be sold for $15K due to inflation.
Electric vehicles are expected to be cheaper than ICE cars.
I completely agree, especially if people can get away from the BS “I need 350mi of range.” Better charging will hopefully help with this.
I just don’t see the price coming down fast enough for a 350mi range EV to be sold for $15,000 vs inflation. At 2% inflation, $15K in 10 years is $12,305.22 today, in $15K in 5 years is $13,585.96 today.
Most people don’t need that type of range anyways. Farther than either of my ice cars go on a tank (unless im doing only highway driving) and I fill a car once a month.
Why is the US so worried to the point of applying a hilariously high 100% tariff? Don’t claim security concerns because if that was really the case then they’d outright ban them instead of resorting to tariffs.
There might be such a future, but I don’t think it will be too soon, unfortunately.
However, your example of the BYD Dolphin has 427km of WLTP range.
According to ev-database it has 350km of real world range, about what the meme was stating in miles: https://ev-database.org/car/1919/BYD-DOLPHIN-604-kWh
Or could you point me to a source that says it has 500 miles of range?
That doesn’t exist anywhere…and I frankly don’t think it ever will.
EDIT What’s with the downvotes? Does anyone want to refute this?
Logically the refutation is kind of easy. Your prediction hinges on two things. A predicate that technology will never get better or cheaper.
Both of those things happen all the time as such, the refutation is simple.
Points to our entire technological history
Vehicles aren’t just one technology though, they are commodity items. Cellphones are more expensive than a decade ago, so are laptops. The average ICE car has gotten much more expensive over time. So, do you think EV technologies will get significantly cheaper quicker than inflation and the general direction of the industry?
The example of the mobile phone is pretty wrong. The first mobile cost about $4000 and the cheapest today still costs around $25. The original cars cost 30k adjusted for inflation with the cheapest today costing around 15.
Once again. It’s always held true. Outside factors could make it take longer but ultimately you said never. Which basically makes your original statement near impossible.
I said a decade ago, not the very first. I also should have said “smartphone”. Powering cars by battery isn’t a brand new technology.
I was responding to a meme that said $15K, not $15K (inflation adjusted).
If you’re not adjusting for inflation you’re just betting that EV range won’t come down in price faster than inflation. Seems like a bit of a technicality, but I still wouldn’t bet on it myself. I have a feeling 350 miles of range is going to be pretty common in a few years.
I actually do think EV range will come down in price faster than inflation, and probably at a pretty significant rate too. I just think the the $15K, 350mi EV is unlikely to ever exist because:
That makes sense. Though it’s not unheard of for breakthroughs in battery chemistry to lead to increased energy density, which would increase range without increasing weight.
The Chinese government is subsidising the car industry to outcompete and destroy other manufacturers. These cars are being sold for less than they’re worth. This is why the EU is banning them. Its the same thing when you in wish and order something for 3 dollars. The Chinese government subsisdises the postage in China and international law means your post has to deliver it in your country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Seagull
Fwiw 100,000 yuan is currently roughly US$13,800
And what’s the range on that? Spoiler: It’s 190 mi base with a max 252 mi. That’s nowhere near 350mi!
Okay thanks. That meme sure is inaccurate isn’t it. I’ll go have a word with the meme council and try to get that straightened out.
Your council works too slowly. Here’s the fix:
Fine here
You good? All of your pressing concerns addressed? Everything to your meme satisfaction? Need some more documentation? Can we let the service workers go home now?
Don’t feed the trolls.
Well, since you asked:
BYD and CATL have announced that battery prices will be halved again by next year.
They’re really ramping up and it will continue.
I don’t doubt that batteries will continue to get better and better, and cheaper and cheaper. However, there are almost no new vehicles PERIOD that are sold in the US for $15K. Maybe we’ll see EVs for $15K, but they certainly won’t have a 350mi range. By the time cheap EVs have that range, cheap cars won’t be sold for $15K due to inflation.
Electric vehicles are expected to be cheaper than ICE cars.
There has been a lot more money and time spend in developing ICE cars.
I completely agree, especially if people can get away from the BS “I need 350mi of range.” Better charging will hopefully help with this.
I just don’t see the price coming down fast enough for a 350mi range EV to be sold for $15,000 vs inflation. At 2% inflation, $15K in 10 years is $12,305.22 today, in $15K in 5 years is $13,585.96 today.
Most people don’t need that type of range anyways. Farther than either of my ice cars go on a tank (unless im doing only highway driving) and I fill a car once a month.
You provide no proof of the facts you state, therefore it’s just as easy for me to say you’re wrong as it is to believe you. 🤷🏼♂️
How am I supposed to prove that a $15K 350mi EV doesn’t exist? It’s Russell’s teapot.
Downvotes are due to China shills and people who don’t understand reality. EVERY post about Chinese EVs goes exactly the same way.
Why is the US so worried to the point of applying a hilariously high 100% tariff? Don’t claim security concerns because if that was really the case then they’d outright ban them instead of resorting to tariffs.
You’re just hunkering down inside your bubble, while offering nothing to the conversation.
There’s a BYD stand close to where I work, I was looking at a “Dolphin” that has around 500 miles of range and costs 30k€.
That’s still twice as what’s in the meme, but they keep getting closer.
If you have some sort of grudge against China automakers, Dacia has its Spring. It costs about what’s in the meme, but with half the range though.
It’s not hard to see a future where 350 miles for 15k is a reality, but the market needs competition.
There might be such a future, but I don’t think it will be too soon, unfortunately.
However, your example of the BYD Dolphin has 427km of WLTP range. According to ev-database it has 350km of real world range, about what the meme was stating in miles: https://ev-database.org/car/1919/BYD-DOLPHIN-604-kWh
Or could you point me to a source that says it has 500 miles of range?