Not yet… Just waiting

Just as a note, the US average power generation also from the EIA is about 477 GW of power so this 20.7 is about 4% of that.

And yes the Units are ridiculous. kilowatts to megawatts to gigawatts in plus million billions and trillion. Blah. Stop switching.

Good fill-in on that. i think I’d add some context to each which is worth discussing.

• Political instability and weak governance are present.

  • No, there are some arguably elements, but when you compare to the issues you see in the countries who’ve had them “No” is good a simple distilled answer.

• There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.

  • Yes, with the caveat that we are seeing low level tensions as compared to the direct violent and organic engage issues you might see in Syria, Haiti, Yugoslavia, etc. There is racism with violence and tension, but not at the widespread near genocidal level which are the signs which is considered. I admit this is arguably, but worth discussing as it’s a framing issue about gun violence, police use of force, structural violence, etc.

• The economy is declining with high inequality.

  • Economy: not declining - Inequality: high, this in particular is going to be a hard sign to trip, given how widespread the middle class is in the US vs other examples. It’s just a much much larger base that needs to get squeezed so much more before you’ll likely see French like protests about the wage disparity, corruption, or other inequality challenges. It’s very relevant, but just unlikely to get a significant population to say it’s not fair enough to act on it… When they can still go out to eat, watch movies, have disposable income, and more.

• Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.

  • Might happen if Trump loses or steals the presidency, this I’m just going to avoid given the continuing discussion.

• External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.

  • Yes, big time, substantiated from a foreign power stand point. I’d point out that this should also describe multinational companies as much as foreign powers.

• There is significant resource scarcity and competition.

  • Not yet, but global warming might make this happen, agree. Starting to see some changes due to some globalization, pandemic, and your point of climate change.

• Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.

  • Well, it’s the USA, agreed… But we are not seeing this based on strictly ethic lines in a way.

• Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.

  • Might happen under Trump

• Society experiences strong ideological polarization.

  • Yes, I’d caveat this with the reality that although it’s perceived as half the country that is polling well for Trump, it’s closer to a third or less. Not that the ideology divide isn’t pertinent, but just that there are about 80 million people who don’t vote in the US, so voter participation in presidential election is about 60%. So perception is that we have huge divide, but it’s driven by less and more extreme voices then the masses.

• Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.

  • No, I would actually argue this might be yes. The housing crunch is driven by a rural to urban migration, which has exacerbated the housing shortage. This in addition to the US being an outlier that has kept it’s population growth rate higher than other developed countries has continued to increase the US population, which is only recently beginning to slow. This is not at the same level as other collapsed countries, but is what gives people the perception that the US is struggling.

• The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.

  • No, agreed although the judge choices and decisions of late leave much to be desired.

• Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.

  • No, agreed with the caveat that racial tension are at play and perceptions focus this to include immigrants.

So I talked to a PhD who’s work covered civil wars across the world, and asked about this. Turns out there are several signs you need to see which makes a civil war more likely. Most of which we haven’t even gotten close to, because many of them are economic related and right now the US is still the single largest economy in the world where peoples standard of living is still very comfortable.

I asked ChatGPT to describe this and these are the highlights, in order of historical priority?

• Political instability and weak governance are present.
• There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.
• The economy is declining with high inequality.
• Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.
• External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.
• There is significant resource scarcity and competition.
• Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.
• Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.
• Society experiences strong ideological polarization.
• Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.
• The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.
• Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.

Note that the US does have some of these, but not to the evident level that you saw in Rwanda, Sudan, Yugoslavia, Syria, Burundi, Eritrea, Somalia, Libya, Myanmar, Haiti, and others. In short, if you look at the indicators, although the US is indeed troubled, it’s not troubled enough for people to hot the streets with more than riotous intent.

Really great explanation! Thanks!

For anyone who wants to support their efforts, they have an active paypal..

In Ukrainian.

We need a video of this, it’s very meme-able.

Really good thoughts. And pontoon bridges or other temporary structures have their limitations.

With that said, I don’t really see S. Korea wanting to invade N. Korea. Short of a radical change in leadership.

Valid historical point, but I am skeptical that Russia of today and and Japan of 1940’s is a close analogy.

Infrastructure, stockpiling, allies, and manufacturing capacity difference mean Russia has a long while yet before we see a total breakdown of air control over the home territory. I won’t say they have air superiority as they seem to be inept at letting some drones through, but it goes to the very different context that Japan had with the US vs Ukraine and it’s limited war vs Russia.

Also the CovertCabal makes clear points backing up the description of not knowing how many rocket artillery are in the field, while acknowledging the various MacGyvered solution they can potentially use.

This whole DPRK troop movement could change many things. Ukraine has done incredible well, but it’s still incredibly over matched if you consider population, economy, resources, and stockpiles. The only balancing factor has been the US & Europe in money and hardware, which has been limited and scaled to the situation which has dragged this out. But war fatigue is setting in and budgets are becoming challenged with election changes. Ukraine may now be able to move militarily with less help, but it still has a huge budget deficit and can barely replace vehicle losses let alone get ahead. Don’t forget about 10 million people fled, so they have a population of about 30 million to Russia, 140ish million. Russia is an order of magnitude larger in GDP. Lots of factors at play, way beyond the morale kills we see and the daily numbers, as heartwarming as they are.

The fat lady has not even stood up to the mic.

For imperial measuring Americans that’s 86,500 square miles which is close to the size of Rhode island (which is itself about 2.27% of the US).