Your last point is actually not a bad analysis - but it is missing that the ones operating their propaganda and troll farms already also control the violence monopoly. And both entities also use violence where they deem it practical.

So, this is 100% speculative rambling at this point, but as a gut feeling on my part that can be proven wrong: I get the feeling it might have been someone from a Republican family, possibly shitty family psychology-wise, registered as Republican for his families sake but got f’d up by the pressure within his personal relationships and the state of the world, who radicalised himself on the internet.

I don’t remember him mentioning the exact year, it’s been ages and I was a child still when he was still alive, but I know it was before the Machtergreifung, because he told it as having been a rally during an election campaign, eerily fitting, I guess.

Two main effects are to be expected: More people leaning towards him, that might not have gone to the polls out of whatever reason (lacking enthusiasm for example) will be more fired up to go vote, and his base will be more fired up to support him in grassroots campaigning. Also, some undecided voters will likely switch from the martyrdom narrative.

Yeah, I remember my grandfather telling the story of how Hitler held a speech at a Stadium that was visible from his attic window, and his biggest regret was, that he did not have a machinegun to take him and the other Nazi officials with him out. The US has enough guns and desperation for someone to attempt this, definitely.

So, I am fearing this will not only rally all Trump supporters to really vote for and support him extra hard, and get some undecideds to his side for his martyr status, but it might also spark a wave of stochastic terrorism and shootings by some right-wingers acting out, who will want to deliver justice to whatever group they will blame.

There is definitely some danger of this potentially spiraling, not guaranteed, but that will depend on some more potentially chaotic weeks ahead. Stay safe, stay prepared, stay organised.

It’s a very common gut reaction to assume something like this has to be “staged”, I said it in the other thread in some discussions: It’s understandable to have it as this feeling. But everyone who feels that way: take a breath, remember the world is much more chaotic and much less controlled than you think, you don’t have to think of yourself as stupid for thinking it, but wait for more information to come out and be ready to give it up then.

Reacting properly to this new reality is much more important, than trying to adjust reality to fit an emotion. It’s human to do that, react instinctively in a first gut reaction, but it is also human to be able to let go of that.

Again, I understand it as an intuitive reaction, but the world is a lot more chaotic than that, and huge conspiracies coordinated well like that are super, super rare. Waiting and being willing to adjust your position is a good thing to do right now. With more stuff coming out, the situation will become more clear.

In the short term, I am expecting right-wing nutjobs to do their own sort of retaliatory shootings, targeting whomever their personal info bubble blames as a group.

At this point, we know very little, but with what we do know at the moment - for this, you’d need:

• someone willing to be taken out as the shooter, willing to or being tricked into shooting blanks, or an extremely elaborate plan to switch in a body (you also have to acquire and prepare somewhere) in front of witnesses and potential cameras
• someone without blanks firing to explain the other bystanders dead from bullets
• complete control over the subsequent investigation, to make sure no one looks into it properly, which would make all the people involved in the know

It is still an extremely, extremely unlikely scenario

The reports I am hearing say that at least two people besides the shooter are dead, which probably is where (some of) the other bullets went. Dude is a coward, but also a narcissist, I assume he noticed that the Secret Service had already killed the shooter, so immediately switched into “I am invincible” mode.

Very unlikely, it’s an easy intuitive thing to think when emotions are high, and there is so much at stake with the election and division so high, that emotions are high as well.

Having a shooter miss you on purpose is something that is extremely risky, not easy to stage, and the US has enough armed people with emotions boiling over and little to lose. It is very much the overwhelmingly more likely scenario.

Could history please have the decency not to re-enact how Hitler survived dozens of assassination attempts?

I mean - nowadays it sorta is, it’s been heavily relegated to sexually fetishised contexts.

But the reason a “Dirndl” is called that is, because “Dirne” is a word that used to mean just “woman” but went through a linguistic evolution to mean “prostitute” quite a while ago. Off the top of my head, I don’t know of an example that happened similiarly in English, but I’d guess there’s bound to be something like that there, too

Fun fact: The German original uses “Dirne” which is a very archaic word, could probably be translated as something like “harlot”

Mix of terror bombing, probing escalation and reactions internationally and demonstrating that they can do as they please, crushing hope within and outside their influence. The usual cynical Realpolitik shit, with a dash of sadistic, immature enjoyment of power on the psychological side.

I mostly try to avoid sugar and eat mostly vegetarian/vegan (with supplements), lots of beans, chickpeas and the like. In the past, I thought I noticed some sensitivity to gluten, but I was never 100% sure about it - sucks, because pasta is so cheap and versatile. Also some fish and seafood from time to time.

There is a real risk of spiraling into unhealthy and expensive habits for me, when I get into a phase where leaving the house is hard or impossible for me, where I then order junk food after not eating for sometimes more than a day at a time, so I try to keep large amounts of canned, dried and frozen food at the ready.

That is very interesting to read - I only learned quite recently that I have been autistic my whole life (in my third decade of life), and in the past, I had been wondering if I had some sort of gluten sensitivity, as I had noticed my psyche sometimes getting quite wonky after eating gluten-heavy meals.

While I agree, they most certainly will still try their damnedest to avoid it. From illegal stuff like tax fraud, to trying stuff like officially “moving” their workplace to a tax haven, while still living in France. There would definitely be more class warfare to be had, even after this were to pass (which they of course will fight tooth and nail against)

Current projections for the parliament:

Mélenchon seems to be aiming to be the head of a left minority government, the question would be, what can be done with a parliament split into thirds, but it is a good sign for the moment