I think this is likely. I could see the US starting a proxy somewhere in South America too but nothing feels particularly primed for it. Taiwan definitely seems like the next major bet.
If it’s not Taiwan, it might be somewhere else that is regional specifically to keep China busy. India, something like that. The US values Taiwan extremely highly because of TSMC so they may decide that starting a war there is too risky.
Why use critical thinking when instead I can just believe everything US backed organizations tell me!