I see that a lot. A lot of people seemed to have thought that sanctions would throw Russia into the stone age. That was obviously never going to happen, so now they came to the conclusion that since that is not happening Russia is even benefiting. Similar story with the Ukrainian summer offensive. Over hyped and then it did not turn out as well and now Ukraine is supposed to loose the war.
Fact of the matter is that Russia is paying a huge price. Military spending makes up more then 7% of GDP and that number is going up with energy profits going down fast and spending increasing. Artillery shells do not improve the quality of life of the average Russian, the smart ones left already and the longer the war lasts the less likely they it becomes they will return. With 350k casualties Russia is loosing a large chunk of its young male workforce. That is in the age group already smaller due to the massive impact of WW2. The longer this lasts, the more Russia is going to loose.
Yes, people tend to think in black and white, going from one extreme to the other. But reality is much more nuanced.
It’s important that democracies learn from crises. Even the current crisis in the US is leading to an important public discussion between the parties, which will lead to better mutual understanding.
At the same time, dictatorial regimes tend to exacerbate crises by creating another one to cover up the causes of the previous one.
Russia is…
- destroying its young male population leaving a disproportionate young woman population
- decimating its domestic manufacturing capacity
- losing markets for its vast natural resources
- economically and politically becoming isolated from the rest of the world as a consequence of its actions
- losing access to western import via sanctions
This looks like the fast-track to becoming a vassal state to China.
Which is why the EU needs to increase aid to Ukraine. If Russia becomes a Chinese vassal, that is an even bigger security risk, then Russia alone. So Russia has to loose quickly and get a new leadership.
