• Badgernomics@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    “When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die.”

    I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He’s a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He’s right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?

    Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he’s a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?

    Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard…

    Whatever is going on, we don’t know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.

    • A.R.S@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Agreed. The situation there is absolutely unbelievable for me. Too much nonesense happening.

      There is more to this than what meets the eye…

      • andyburke@kbin.social
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        1 year ago

        The leader of the only effective Russian fighting force in UA is retiring to the place Russia just sent their tactical nukes after trying a coup…

    • Overzeetop@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Yeah, and we’re going to need a Top Hour option on Lemmy. This Top Day cycle clearly exceeds world event pace by at least an order of magnitude.

    • JoeCoT@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      The only way this makes any sense is if there’s an active coup against Putin, Lukashenko is in on it, and convinced him to pause while the Kremlin takes out Putin, to avoid him having to fight other Russians.

  • swcollings@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Prigozhin was being politically displaced by the Ministry of Defense. His only hope was to displace the Ministry of Defense right back. Putin and the rest of the military didn’t bite, and Prigozhin’s position was strategically untenable. Maybe he could have taken Moscow, but everyone important had already left, and he couldn’t hold Moscow once he had it. So he accepted exile over a fight to his certain death, because he’s a mercenary and mercenaries don’t die for a cause.

  • Biff@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    So he halted the march before reaching Moscow. Took a deal where he goes to Belarus and no one gets prosecuted. And then everything carries on as normal? What was the point of this then?

    • qwertyWarlord@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      The only thing I can think of is he actually thought he was going to be killed and now thinks he won’t? Ideologically he said a lot about wasted resources and lives and generals with no experience or planning, yadda yadda but until we see a true shake up of military leadership, nothing will change. It doesn’t matter if it’s shoigu or Putin himself, there is no experienced leadership for a war like this so nothing will change

  • JohnDClay@sh.itjust.works
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    1 year ago

    What channel was the audio recording? We need to get deepfake specialists on this right away, the audio only is suspicious, and Russia has every reason to try and stop popular support

    • wabafee@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      This would be interesting if its actually deepfake it would be the first case used in conflict. I wonder what would be the implications to it if Ukraine perhaps send a deepfake audio of both sides to mess up Russia’s command.