• China has been seeing a boom in manufacturing, which has offset a contraction in demand for carbon-intensive steel and cement due to the ongoing real-estate slump.

• The emissions rebound in 2023 has been accompanied by record installations of low-carbon electricity generating capacity, particularly wind and solar.

• Hydro generation is set to rebound from record lows due to drought in 2022-23.

• China’s economic recovery from Covid has been muted. To date, it has not repeated previous rounds of major infrastructure expansion after economic shocks.

• There has been a surge of investment in manufacturing capacity, particularly for low-carbon technologies, including solar, electric vehicles and batteries.

• This is creating an increasingly important interest group in China, which could affect the country’s approach to domestic and international climate politics.

• On the other hand, coal power capacity continues to expand, setting the scene for a showdown between the country’s traditional and newly emerging interest groups.

Taken together, these factors all but guarantee a decline in China’s CO2 emissions in 2024.