Yes, it’s an El Nino year which will push the global average up a little more than normal, but this really is the new normal. Since the new maritime fuel regulations to reduce sulphur dioxide came into effect about three years ago, the stratospheric aerosol concentration has reduced to the point that its cooling effect is waning. There’s nothing holding back climate change now, and we’re getting the full effect like never before. Of course, there will still be some variation in the annual mean temperature, but the line is going up from here on out.
‘normal’ implies some sort of new stable state, when it’s not stable
From the article:
Nothing ‘normal’ about it A lot of commentary uses the framing of a “new normal,” as if our climate has undergone a step change to a new state. This is deeply misleading and downplays the danger. The unspoken implication of “new normal” is that the change is past and we can adjust to it as we did to the “old normal.”
So it may truly be the new normal, but they don’t want you to say that for fear of getting complacent and unwilling to do anything about solving the problem…got it.
It’s more that things haven’t stabilized because people are still dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere:
