You are right, the spot exchange rate at a given point in time is random and tells you nothing (nothing!) about the strength of a currency (or economy). Japan is a great example.
What, however, does indicate a weakening or economic downturn is the uncontrolled depreciation of a currency, which errodes savings, threatens foreign debt paybacks, and makes imports more expensive
The Yen is relatively stable for decades at its spot. The Rubel is sliding against monetary and fiscal efforts, which indicates deeper macroeconomic issues.
You are right, the spot exchange rate at a given point in time is random and tells you nothing (nothing!) about the strength of a currency (or economy). Japan is a great example.
What, however, does indicate a weakening or economic downturn is the uncontrolled depreciation of a currency, which errodes savings, threatens foreign debt paybacks, and makes imports more expensive
The Yen is relatively stable for decades at its spot. The Rubel is sliding against monetary and fiscal efforts, which indicates deeper macroeconomic issues.
“Deeper economic issues” is one of nicer things he’s been called since he started openly warmongering.