

Right. My point is that the Arab states lost to Israel because Israel was backed by the West. Without western support, a tiny Jewish state with almost no natural resources and a small population would be hard-pressed to stand its ground against a coalition of Arab states with a much larger population, oil money, and possible Russian backing. All the Arab states would need to do is keep taking pot shots at Israel while their superior military technology degrades and their stockpiles dwindle. A modern fighter jet relies on thousands of hyper-specific, high precision parts which can only be sources from western manufacturers. One part breaks and your whole plane is grounded. Even if the Arab states are not in great shape themselves, they win a war of attrition handily - especially once the average Israeli sees the inevitable and flees, depriving Israel of its soldiers and intellectual economy.
Otoh, your timeline argument is reasonable, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this wasn’t a coincidence in one way or another.
I’m split. On one hand, thunderstorms in DC in the summer are so obvious and predictable that anyone doing any kind of organizing for an outdoor event would have considered them months in advance and would have contingencies. So “cancelled due to thunderstorms” is obviously a cover for “we’re getting too much pushbacka and don’t want to embarrass ourselves.”
Otoh, not realizing that there is a thunderstorm pretty much every single day in DC in the summer is exactly the level of competence I expect from the Trump admin.